Ask ten crypto proponents about the prices of Bitcoin a year from now and you’re likely to hear ten widely different answers. Some use astrology, some use technical analysis, and some use on-chain voodoo art for their predictions.
And there are then ex-institutional guys like Tone Vays, who rely on a mix of the staunchest fundamental and technical analysis for their calls.
Vays worked on Wall Street for almost 10 years starting as a Risk Analyst at Bear Stearns and later becoming a VP at JP Morgan Chase in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. His expertise is in Economic Trends, Trading, and Risk Analysis, and is has been a Bitcoin bull since 2013.
Today, Vays caught up with Alex Fazel for a feature on crypto edutainment channel Cryptonites. They discussed everyone’s favorite topic—a.k.a where Bitcoin is going in the next year—apart from how Bitcoin converts like Micheal Saylor and Elon Musk affect price action, the upcoming rush of institutions in the space, and the moon target of $300,000 per Bitcoin in 2021.
Joining them is ‘Carl the Moon,’ a popular crypto investor and educator who runs a YoutTube channel about Bitcoin news and is known for his easy-to-watch technical analysis videos for Bitcoin newcomers.
Here’s what they said…
The bull case for Bitcoin
Carl kicked the show off with a little insight into how Bitcoin rallies in the past usually acted. “If you look at other bull markets in Bitcoin, we have always seen huge corrections. And 40% is well within the realms of what is normal,” he said.
“We haven’t even seen 40% in like the last year now, which makes me a little bit skeptical of the whole price action. I think that w too many people are FOMOing in at the same time driven by this whole institutional narrative,” he said, adding that while the institutions were jumping in people were likely “over speculating” the effects of it in the past few months.
MicroStrategy and Tesla have jumped into Bitcoin at different periods in the past six months, picking up over $2.5 billion of the asset in all between the two of them. Square has picked up over $50 million worth as well, and several institutional investors have stacked their own hoards as well.
Vays added that nation-states are rumouredly jumping on the bandwagon too. “Now that I’m here in Dubai, I’m hearing all these rumors about how Dubai is about to (buy Bitcoin) and UAE is about to buy up a bunch of Bitcoin,” he said.
But for Vays, institutional FOMO isn’t the only reason for his bullishness. He says his experience of the latest US election was the biggest driver. “I felt that they cheated. And that made me lose respect for the US government,” he said, adding:
“That makes me lose respect for the US economic system. And this is probably why the dollar is faltering not because they’re printing too many dollars. People are losing confidence in the dollar. And corporates are scared. Everyone is scared.”
Vays noted that once the above begins and people lose trust in their government, they end up moving their money to anything they have confidence in. “And Bitcoin is the ultimate alternative,” he said.
Incessant money printing
Adding to Vays’ comments on how people were losing trust in the government, Carl said the current macroeconomic environment was priming up the way Bitcoin’s creators had imagined.
“This scenario is literally what Bitcoin was made for. The money printing and we’re seeing, like financial disaster, and I think that Bitcoin is taking a lot of, like, interest for people are interested in Bitcoin, because it’s the best place to kind of hide from this whole disaster,” he said, adding:
“I think that’s also I’m super bullish on Bitcoin, I really think that three or 1000 could easily happen before the end of this year.”
As for the price targets in the short term, Vays said he sees BTC reaching $65,000, before a more serious correction. “But now that we just had a 20% correction, I think we delayed it a little bit,” he said, adding, “If the price goes back above 55, I will now be looking for 65 or as high as 75. Before that 40% correction comes.
Carl, on the other hand, sees the bull run to be a double bubble run similar to that in 2013. “I’m looking for this first peak to be in that $65,000 to $75,000 range, and the second peak somewhere between $100,000,” he said, adding a target of $200,000 wasn’t entirely out of the cards.